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☆ The stunning strength of the US economy means the soft landing may already be here, Evercore founder says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US economy may have already stuck the soft landing, according to Evercore founder Roger Altman. AdvertisementThe US economy may have successfully avoided a recession and is already gliding toward a soft landing, according to Evercore founder Roger Altman. AdvertisementThose are big reasons stocks remain buoyant despite a sell-off this week as markets repriced expectations for Fed rate cuts. "Everything by and large is going right in the US economy," Altman said, noting that inflation is usually sticky as it falls from a peak. Arguably, the soft landing already has happened."

Persons: Roger Altman, Altman, —, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, CNBC, Atlanta Fed, Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, The New, Fed, National Association for Business Economics Locations: —

☆ A bigger pool of American workers could continue to slow inflation even further
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-03 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Now, as the Federal Reserve faces the final stretch of its historic inflation battle, a bigger pool of workers could slow inflation even further. That then begs the question: How much more can better labor supply slow inflation? The US Labor Department releases January figures on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Labor Department reports the number of new applications for jobless benefits in the week ended March 2. China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases February inflation data.

Persons: Mary Daly, “, ” Sarah House, Michael Gapen, That’s, Jack Bantock, ’, ”, Richard Felton, Thomas, ’ ”, Patrick Harker, Ross, Nordstrom, Michael Barr, Campbell Soup, Foot, Jerome Powell, Loretta Mester Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, National Association for Business Economics, Labor, CNN, Bank of America, White House’s Council, Economic Advisers, English Premier League, Chelsea, Burnley, Philadelphia Fed, Target, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, US Commerce Department, Abercrombie, Fitch, Financial Services, The Bank of Canada, US Labor Department, Broadcom, Costco, Eagle Outfitters, Potbelly, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs, European Central Bank, Cleveland Fed, National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Washington, San, Wells, United States, London, JD.com, Kroger, Burlington, DocuSign

Mortgage rates jumped up last week following the release of some hotter-than-expected inflation data. Once it looks clearer that inflation is coming down to the Fed's 2% target, mortgage rates should ease. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's interest rates will affect your monthly payments. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesThis week's average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.77%, according to Freddie Mac. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates inched down to 6.12% last week, according to Freddie Mac data.

Persons: Mary Daly, agilely, Daly, Price, you'll, Freddie Mac, it's, they've Organizations: Federal Reserve, National Association for Business, San Francisco Fed, Index, Fed, Zillow Locations: Chevron

☆ The Fed can still break markets. Here’s how
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Those gains came even as Federal Reserve officials attempted to reduce investors’ lofty expectations for a plethora of interest rate cuts this year. It is now signaling that interest rates could come this year but not until spring or summer. That means they think the Fed is keeping interest rates too high and could potentially slow down economic growth too much and risk a recession. That makes the NFL and the Super Bowl all the more valuable to advertisers trying to reach a mass market. Li-Lac Chocolates, which calls itself the oldest chocolate shop in Manhattan, told CNN that their raw chocolate prices are up 13% this February compared to a year ago.

Persons: Torsten Slok, Jerome Powell, Raphael Bostic, Olivier Darcy, Sunday’s, CNN’s John Towfighi, ”, Michele Buck Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Big Tech, Federal Reserve, Investors, Nasdaq, Federal, Apollo Global Management, National Association for Business, Atlanta Fed, CNN, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, CBS, Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, NFL, Allegiant, NFC, Fox, AFC, Super Bowl, Companies, Hershey Co Locations: New York, There’s, Las Vegas, West Africa, North America, Manhattan

☆ The US economy ended 2023 with a bang
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.3% in the fourth quarter. After real GDP surged 4.9% in the third quarter, the latest point suggests still strong growth. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Real GDP rose at an annualized rate of 3.3% per the news release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Persons: —, Steve Rattner, Willett, Rattner Organizations: Service, National Association for Business Economics, Willett Advisors, Bloomberg, Labor Statistics

☆ Extreme greed is back on Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

That’s all heralded the return of extreme greed to Wall Street. The S&P 500 is up 2.6% and the Dow is 0.6% higher. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both on pace to score their sixth-straight winning sessions. CNN’s Fear and Greed Index, which tracks seven indicators of market sentiment in the United States, tipped into “Extreme Greed” this week, marking a stunning turnaround from just a few months ago, when the index was in Extreme Fear territory. The idea of a soft landing (when inflation rates ease and the economy avoids recession) is likely playing a big part.

Persons: we’re, ”, Lydia Boussour, “, Christopher Waller, Bill Gates, Henry Allen, Allen Organizations: New, New York CNN, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Gross, Commerce Department, Consumer, Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Fed, ” Financial, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, Investment, Deutsche Bank, Big Tech Locations: New York, United States

☆ Here’s where to invest $50,000 in the new year, according to the pros
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-01 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The S & P 500 rose 24% in 2023, ending the year just shy of a record closing high. The highest S & P 500 target on the Street calls for 8.7% upside from Thursday's close. A fund with exposure to small and midcap semiconductor stocks is the SPDR S & P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) . Exposure to this space can be obtained through the SPDR S & P Health Care Equipment ETF (XHE) . For these investors, Bailey likes Berkshire Hathaway , calling it a counter-cyclical sitting on a ton of cash.

Persons: Larry Adam, Raymond James, Robert Kaplan, Steven Wieting, Wieting, there's, Mike Bailey, — Bailey, Bailey, They're, Berkshire Hathaway, Eli Lilly, they're, Jack Ablin, Ablin, Rowe Price Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, CNBC Pro's, Survey, National Association for Business Economics, Dallas Federal, CNBC, Bank of America, Fed, CNBC Pro, Citi Global Wealth, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, P Semiconductor, P Health Care, FBB Capital Partners, Corporate, Aggregate Bond, Berkshire, Essex Property Trust, Federal Realty Trust, Rowe Price Group Locations: Essex

NEW YORK (AP) — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday. Only 24% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said they see a recession in 2024 as more likely than not. The 38 surveyed economists come from such organizations as Morgan Stanley, the University of Arkansas and Nationwide. Political Cartoons View All 1277 ImagesHigh rates work to slow inflation by making borrowing more expensive and hurting prices for stocks and other investments. Expectations are split among economists on when the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates, something that can relieve pressure on the economy and act like steroids for financial markets.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, ” Ellen Zentner Organizations: National Association for Business Economics, University of Arkansas, Nationwide, Federal, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S

REUTERS/Ann Saphir/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 7 (Reuters) - Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan on Tuesday said she supported leaving the Fed's policy rate on hold last week to assess if financial conditions are sufficiently tight to bring down inflation, while pointing to recent signs the fight was not yet won. "We're going to continue to need to see tight financial conditions in order to bring inflation to 2% in a timely and sustainable way," Logan said. "I'm going to be looking at the data and I'm going to be looking at financial conditions as we get closer to the following meeting." That view was one main reason the Fed opted to keep the policy rate in its current 5.25%-5.50% range last week. "We have seen some retracement in that 10-year yield and financial conditions, and so I'll be watching to see whether that continues and what that means for the implications of policy," Logan said on Tuesday.

Persons: Lorie Logan, Ann Saphir, Logan, Franklin Paul, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Reserve Bank, Dallas, National Association for Business Economics, REUTERS, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, Fed, Thomson Locations: Dallas , Texas, U.S

☆ Bond term premiums are now a focus for the Fed. What are they?
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A bond yield can be decomposed into three elements: Expectations for what the Fed does with short-term rates; a premium for expected inflation; and a term premium. Term premiums cannot be directly observed but a number of models for them exist. A New York Fed model shows the term premium for the benchmark 10-year Treasury note has climbed by more than a percentage point since the start of the third quarter. "A sudden rise in term premiums to more normal levels poses a downside risk to long-maturity Treasury prices, which could in turn affect the prices of other assets," the Fed said in its July 2017 Monetary Policy Report, a period during which term premiums were below zero. "If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the fed funds rate."

Persons: Kevin Lamarque, Jerome Powell nodded, Lorie Logan, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Department of, U.S . Treasury, REUTERS, . Federal Reserve, Economic, of New, Reuters, New York Fed, Reuters Graphics, Dallas, National Association for Business Economics, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, of New York, York

☆ A recession may still be in the forecast, experts say. Here's how to make sure you're prepared
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Jamie Kelter Davis | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesA recession has been in the forecast for much of 2023. "A recession is obviously going to happen at some point," said Jack Manley, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. Those factors may prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer, Aleman said. Experts say the key is to automate your savings so you do not even see the money in your paycheck. Another advantage to saving now: Rising interest rates mean the potential returns on that money are the highest they have been in 15 years.

Persons: Jamie Kelter Davis, Jack Manley, —, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James, Aleman, Manley, Barry Glassman, CNBC.com, Glassman, Mark Hamrick, Matt Schulz, Schulz Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Asset Management, National Association for Business Economics, Finance, Federal Reserve, Wealth Services, CNBC's, Bankrate Locations: Chicago

In both cases the outcome would push the Fed from that "golden path" onto a far more familiar one: An economy buckling as borrowing costs rise and confidence wanes. "I don't think it is unavoidable" that joblessness will have to rise significantly for inflation to return to target, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on Monday. But the most important thing is that we stay focused on restoring price stability, and I think that will require some rebalancing in the labor market." Her look at past periods of inflation and disinflation makes her think the labor market may still need a shock for the Fed to succeed. "As nice as it is to see a really strong labor market, when you are trying to get inflation down, that's not your friend."

Persons: Lorie Logan, Philip Jefferson, Austan Goolsbee, Jefferson, Christina Romer, Romer, Goolsbee, that's, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: DALLAS, Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Dallas, Chicago Fed, Treasury, University of California, White House's Council, Economic Advisers, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, Dallas, Israel, Palestinian, Berkeley

☆ Treasury-bond rout eases as more Fed officials hint further rate hikes may not be necessary
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Bond yields plunged lower Tuesday following comments from Fed officials about a rate hike reprieve. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he sees no need for further rate hikes to cool down the economy. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said rising term premiums on bonds may do the job of rate hikes. AdvertisementAdvertisementUS Treasurys rallied Tuesday, taking a breather after a blistering sell-off, as more Federal Reserve officials suggested further rate hikes may not be needed. More than a year and a half of steady rate hikes has brought the fed funds rate to a 22-year high.

Persons: Raphael Bostic, Lorie Logan, —, Bostic, Philip Jefferson Organizations: Atlanta Fed, Dallas, Service, Federal Reserve, American Bankers Association, National Association for Business Locations: Israel, Dallas

☆ US stocks jump as bond yields tumble after Fed officials hint rate hikes may be over
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Bond yields tumbled after Fed officials hinted that the end of rate hikes may be near. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementUS stocks climbed Tuesday, while bond yields dropped following comments from key Fed officials that hinted at the end of rate hikes. Logan, meanwhile, noted that high bond yields may do the trick as far as cooling down the economy.

Persons: —, Raphael Bostic, Lorie Logan, Bostic Organizations: Dow, Treasury, Service, Investors, Atlanta Fed, Dallas Fed, American Bankers Association, National Association for Business, Nasdaq Locations: Israel, Logan, Dallas

“I will remain cognizant of the tightening in financial conditions through higher bond yields and will keep that in mind as I assess the future path of policy,” Jefferson said in remarks to the National Association for Business Economics. The remarks by Jefferson and earlier by Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan, one of the Fed system's more influential voices on financial markets, caused investors to undercut the likelihood of further Fed rate increases. "If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the fed funds rate," said Logan, who has been among the more hawkish officials in supporting the need for continued rate increases. Since the Fed last raised its policy interest rate a quarter of a percentage point in July, long-term bond yields have risen a full percentage point, a fast rate of change for a massive market. A rise in the so-called “term premium," if it proves persistent, could put an enduring drag on the economy and perhaps give the Fed less reason to raise its own policy rate.

Persons: Philip Jefferson, ” Jefferson, Jefferson, Lorie Logan, FedWatch, Gregory Daco, Logan, policymaker, Chris Varvares, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci, Nick Zieminski Organizations: DALLAS, Federal, Treasury, National Association for Business Economics, Dallas, New York Fed, Fed, P, Thomson Locations: U.S, Jefferson, Israel

"If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the fed funds rate," Logan said. The Dallas Fed president said the economy has been stronger than she had expected, as has been the labor market, and that inflation was still too high despite progress in lowering it. But because Logan ran the New York Fed's bond portfolio for years before she took the top job at the Dallas Fed, her views on what's driving long-term rates higher could carry considerable weight as policymakers weigh their next moves. "The expectation of lower Federal Reserve asset holdings over time implies that other investors will need to hold more long-duration securities, which appears to be one factor among the many contributing to higher term premiums," Logan said. Figuring out how much of the higher long-term rates is due to higher term premiums is complex, she added.

Persons: Lorie Logan, Ann Saphir, Logan, Mary Daly, Julia Coronado, Lorie, she's, Krishna Guha, Guha, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank, Dallas, Kansas City, REUTERS, Rights, Treasury, Federal Reserve, National Association for Business Economics, Market, San Francisco Fed, Evercore ISI, Dallas Fed, Fed, Thomson Locations: Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, York

"The markets will also be following what the scenarios are looking like," he said, and whether, after decades of instability in the Middle East, this outbreak of violence evolves differently. "The question will be is this iteration something that will throw the long-term equilibrium out of balance?" "The conflict poses a risk of higher oil prices, and risks to both inflation and the growth outlook," said Karim Basta, chief economist at III Capital Management, leaving the Fed to sort out whether higher prices or slower growth is the greater concern. To the extent the Israeli war with Hamas heightens concerns about the global economy it could reverse that trend if capital rushes towards the relative safety of U.S. Treasury bonds, as often happens at times of potential crisis. Reporting by Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Ronen, It’s, Agustin Carstens, Carl Tannenbaum, Karim Basta, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Bank for International, National Association for Business Economics, Federal Reserve, Northern Trust, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, III Capital Management, Fed, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Gaza, Sderot, Israel, Ukraine, U.S, Morocco, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Gulf, Suez

☆ BIS' Carstens: too early to say how new war will impact global outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

DALLAS, Oct 8 (Reuters) - Bank for International Settlements General Manager Agustin Carstens on Sunday said it's "too early to say" how the newly erupted conflict in Israel will affect the global economy still struggling with post-pandemic high inflation. "Traditionally this affects the price of oil and can affect the stock market, but it’s too early to say," Carstens told the National Association for Business Economics in answer to a question after a talk in which he emphasized the need for central banks to keep interest rates relatively high "for a while" to beat inflation. "We need to continue being very firm." Reporting by Ann Saphir; editing by Diane CraftOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Agustin Carstens, it's, Carstens, Ann Saphir, Diane Craft Organizations: DALLAS, Bank for International, National Association for Business Economics, Thomson Locations: Israel

Now, however, some firms and experts are walking back those predictions, calling into question the validity of a once-trusted recession indicator known as the yield curve inversion. Nobody rational would argue that the yield curve could have predicted a global pandemic and the short recession that followed it. NABE's most recent survey shows economists are divided on what a yield curve inversion means for the U.S. economy. In normal circumstances, yield curve inversions have been a pretty good indicator of recessions, according to Jebaraj. While the yield curve inverted in 2019, that was not necessarily a predictor of the 2020 recession.

Persons: Mervin, NABE, Goldman Sachs, NABE's Jebaraj, Sam, Jebaraj, — Organizations: Westend61, Getty, National Association for Business Economics, Reserve, Wall, Bank of America, JPMorgan, Center for Business, Economic Research, Walton College of Business, University of Arkansas, Treasury, National Association for Business Locations: U.S

☆ Americans continue to feel better about inflation and the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Washington, DC CNN —US consumers have been feeling a whole lot better this summer as inflation has continued to slow. That’s a huge improvement from June 2022, when consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level on record and inflation reached a four-decade high of 9.1%. “However, sentiment for lower-income consumers fell.”Indeed, recent data continue to reflect inflation slowing. Consumer spending is the main engine of the economy, accounting for about two-thirds of output, and much of it hinges on the state of the labor market. The Fed certainly wants to see core inflation continue to decelerate, but Powell routinely points to the labor market not being balanced.

Persons: ”, Joanne Hsu, Lydia Boussour, Jerome Powell, ” Powell, Powell Organizations: DC CNN, University of Michigan, University of Michigan’s, Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Fed, “, Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: Washington, EY

☆ 3 signs the US economy is set to zoom past growth expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

On Thursday, new GDP data will show just how much the US economy grew between April and June. The US has also been experiencing a factory boom, with construction spending on US manufacturing nearly doubling from May 2022 to May 2023. Manufacturing employment recently hit its highest level since 2008, and since Biden took office, around 800,000 manufacturing jobs were added. In the first two quarters of this year, applications to start a business likely to hire employees grew 7% year-over-year. Sectors leading likely employer business applications include accommodation and food services, construction, health care and social assistance, and retail trade.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Joe, Biden, Ellen Zentner, Julia Coronado Organizations: Infrastructure Investment, Jobs, Service, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Congressional, Investments, Economic, Sectors, National Association for Business Economics, Conference, CPI, Federal Locations: Wall, Silicon, —, Philadelphia, frastructure, Mississippi, North Carolina

☆ Top economists do U-turn on recession forecasts as most now see it as unlikely in next year
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

A 71% majority of economists put the odds of a recession in the next 12 months at 50% or less. It's a turnabout from a March, when a majority saw a recession sometime in 2023. A 71% majority of economists put the odds of a recession in the next 12 months at 50% or less, according to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics. That includes a sizable chunk who are especially optimistic, with one-fourth saying a recession has a probability of 25% or less. And in the March NABE survey, 58% said the US was either already in a recession or that it would come sometime in 2023.

Persons: It's, Julia Coronado, Steve Eisman, Paul Krugman Organizations: National Association for Business Economics, Service Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Business conditions are expected to improve as inflation slows
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Washington, DC CNN —American businesses are expected to fare better in the coming months, according to a survey of economists and analysts released Monday. A survey from the National Association for Business Economics released Monday showed that businesses have rejoiced in better economic conditions. Meanwhile, a majority of respondents reported that wages at their firms were unchanged — the first time more economists reported no wage gains than rising wages since 2021. The Fed doesn’t necessarily need a recession to do that, but some research suggests the labor market must cool further. The labor market is closely watched by Fed officials since higher labor costs feed into inflation.

Persons: haven’t, ”, Julia Coronado, Austan Goolsbee, cooldown, Brian Moynihan, bode Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, University of Michigan’s, Consumers, National Association for Business, Employers, Chicago Fed, Bank of America, Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Federation of Independent, Fed Locations: Washington

☆ The job market held up in May. But the Fed may have already decided to pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Washington, DC CNN —The US labor market picked up momentum in May, once again defying expectations of a slowdown. Many economists, including those at the Fed, still expect a recession later in the year. The labor market and signs of future disinflationThe May jobs report mostly showed that the labor market held up. Some top economists have argued that the strong labor market has had a minor, albeit growing, impact on inflation. Hawkish Fed officials still think the Fed’s job isn’t done.

Persons: That’s, Joe Biden’s, ”, Philip Jefferson, Patrick Harker, “, ” Harker, It’s, ” Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter’s, you’ve, you’d, Dave Gilbertson, hasn’t, Ben Bernanke, ” Jack Macdowell, Louis President James Bullard, Bullard, Louis Fed’s, Louis, Jerome Powell, there’s, Ian Shepherdson, Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, National Association for Business Economics, CNN, Employers, of Labor Statistics, BLS, UKG, The Palisades Group, Hawkish Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Louis Fed, Pantheon Locations: Washington, Washington ,

Harker said he sees promising signs the Fed's rate hikes so far -- five full percentage points since March 2022 -- are having a cooling effect, particularly on housing prices. Uncertainty over inflation dynamics and the pace of credit tightening make him wary of continuing to raise rates. Harker said he expects the economy to grow less than 1% this year, and for the unemployment rate, now at 3.4%, to rise to around 4.4%. He said he could envision the Fed cutting rates if unemployment rises significantly faster, or inflation falls more rapidly, than he currently forecasts. "We don't have to keep moving rates up, and then have to reverse course quickly."

Persons: Patrick Harker, Harker, Corp's, Ann Saphir, Paul Simao Organizations: Philadelphia Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Thomson

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